Abstract
I show how results from the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership of the European Union can be remapped from local authority level to parliamentary constituency level through the use of a scaled Poisson regression model which incorporates demographic information from lower level geographies. I use these estimates to show how the geographic distribution of signatures to a petition for a second referendum was strongly associated with how constituencies voted in the actual referendum.
Full-text
The version accepted by the journal can be found here. The (gated) version of record can be found here.
Replication data
Replication data can be found at the Harvard Dataverse
Citation
Hanretty, Chris. 2017. “Areal Interpolation and the UK’s Referendum on EU Membership.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27 (4): 466–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1287081.